As conventional sources of electricity generation begin to dwindle, due to
the finite nature of the fossil fuel resource, replacement generation must come 
in the  form of renewable energy projects.  The Dec 4, 2007 issue of the RG 
contains an editorial essentially supporting the Fall Creek reservoir retrofit 
with hydroelectric turbines capable of providing 10 MW of renewable power - arguing
further that "in the context of renewable energy sources 10 MW isn't small at all".
However, this statement requires more quantitative scrutiny:

1.  The total cost of the retrofit is estimated by EPUD to lie between 14-25
million dollars or equivalently between 1.4 and 2.5 dollars per watt (and the latter
value is expensive by current renewable energy standards)

2.  The average required power in the Eugene-Springfield area is in the range
400-500 MW - 10 MW of power could be saved merely if each of the approximately
125,000 households in the service area merely changed out 1 100 Watt 
incandascent light bulb with
a 20 Watt CFL - so in that context, why do we even need an extra 10 MW facility
retrofitted to a dam for approximately 20 million dollars that won't even come
on line for another 6-7 years?

3.  As we discuss in my energy policy class at the University of Oregon - very large
scale renewable projects are now possible (but of course have high capital cost).
Examples include a) a tidal fence/wind turbine project across the straight of
Juan de Fuca which could easily generate 30,000 MW;
b) a 100 square km concentrated solar power facility located in Northern Nevada
could produce 10,000 MW; c) Off shore wind power, at unit capacity of 5 MW per
turbine could easily generate 20,000 MW along the Oregon coast.

In the 1930s, when there was a need for energy sources, leadership (FDR) championed
very large scale infrastructure projects in the American west.  We need a similar
spirit now if we are to successfully transition from our fossil fuel economy to a 
more sustainable one, given our voracious consumption.  Careful choices need
to be made as we are running out of raw materials for infrastructure due mostly
to China's incredible rate of growth.  

As an
example, the material requirements (mostly steel) for ocean energy power buoys
are 8 times larger (per produced MW) than for wind turbines - therefore we must 
choose wisely if we are to eventually replace the approximately 700,000 MW of
current USA electricity generation from fossils (mostly coal); 10 MW here or there
is more symbolic than functional - we must implement on much larger scales before
time has run out.

Greg Bothun
Professor of Physics