The PNW Hydroelectric System:

Total System Capacity (20,000 MegaWatts).but has large annual variance!

Other parts of the world also depend significantly on hydropower:

Notes:

• Norway produces more than 99% of its electricity with hydropower
• New Zealand uses hydropower for 75% of its electricity.
• In the U.S., hydropower produces enough electricity to serve the needs of 28 million residential customers.

Energy vs the Environment: Pacific Northewest Salmon as a Case Study.

Despite the fact that the PNW has a high rate of use of renewable energy, hydroelectric power has fallen into public disfavor, mostly as a result of a perceived Salmon crises. Still some new projects are still being proposed

In the US there still is significant regional hydro potential:

California has a large network of smaller facilities:

The apparent decline of the salmon in the Columbia river system is one of the most complex environmental problems we have.

However, this problem has been over-simplified by the media and others to one single root cause, namely the construction of hydroelectric dams on the Columbia river system.

Most people believes Dams are the root cause of the Salmon Decline. They cite the following data as evidence:

We wish to access of this simplification is valid by examining some of the broader issues and looking at the actual data which is available.

The Salmon controversy is an excellent example of arguments made largely on belief, instead of knowledge that is supported by the actual data.

As the dams are obvious targets of opportunity this belief system can be supported. But can it really be supported by the data? .

It is also an excellent example/reflection of another problem that effectively prohibits meaningful discourse; reactive vs proactive positions

Let's look at some data. Most of this data comes from fish counts done at Bonneville Dam starting in 1938.

Blue line represents growth of non-harvested fish in the Columbia River system. The implication is that competition for food/nutrients is increasing rapidly.

Its getting warmer earlier in the season with time in the Columbia river. Is this cause local (e.g. dams/ag) or global (e.g. Global Warming)

	Graph shows total salmon catch off the coast of North America (including Alaska).
Decline of In-River catches which is frequently used as the "best" indicator for overall salmon decline in the Columbia River System:	Implication is that increases in ocean catch are directly responsible for decreases of in-river catches also shown.

Factors Causing Salmon Decline:

Salmon Decline Matrix

Problem	Dams	Logging	Changing Climate	Agriculture	Pop. Growth	Over Fishing	Other
Salmon Migration Barriers	Big Time	no	no	no	no	no	no
Barriers to Reaching Spawing Grounds	Yes	no	Yes	no	no	Yes!	no
Reduced Number of Young Salmon reaching sea	yes	yes	no	no	no	no	bird predation
Pesticide Exposure	no	Yes	no	Yes	no	no	no
Industrial Pollutants Exposure	no	no	no	no	Yes	no	no
Loss of Streamside Vegetation and Functions	no	Yes	no	Yes	Yes	no	no
Increased Sediment Load	no	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	no	no
Natural Habitat Destruction	yes	yes	no	yes	yes	no	no
Reduced Fresh Water Flow in Rivers and Streams	yes	no	no	yes	yes	no	no
Abnormal water temperatures	yes	no	yes	yes	no	no	no
Reduced upwelling and nutrient/food supply	no	no	yes	no	no	no	competition with hatchery fish
Estuary Degradation	no	Yes	no	no	Yes	no	no
Loss of cool deep pools in streams	no	Yes	no	no	no	no	no

Qualitative Scorecard:

• Dams: 6 strikes
• Logging: 7 strikes
• Climate Change: 4 strikes
• Agriculture: 6 strikes
• Overpopulation: 6 strikes
• Overfishing: 1 (but its potentially the most important factor)
• Other: 2

Abstract of a Recent Technical Paper

Evidence of a Nutrient Deficit in the Freshwater Systems of the Pacific Northwest. A comparison of historic and current levels of salmon abundance was used to determine the current deficit of marine-derived nutrients for Pacific Northwest streams. This nutrient deficit may be one indication of ecosystem failure that has contributed to the downward spiral of salmonid abundance, further diminishign the possibility of salmon population recovery to self-sustaining levels.

This is the raw salmon count data at Boneville Dam that we will inspect more closely below. Evidence of quasi-cylical behavior is apparent. Generating count Data (last year and this year are high!)

Pacific Northwest Index

World Salmon Harvest