This assigment is due by 9:50 pm, Friday April 29

Use this tool to help with determining exponential growth rates (will be demonstrated in class for the case of Iowa )

Also, Cellphone Example

1. Can wind replace coal? Currently the US has approximately 336,000 MW of nameplate capacity for Coal fired electricity.

   Let's assume that we have an energy plan to replace this nameplate capacity in coal with wind energy by continuing the build out in wind energy in Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, North and South Dakota and Texas.

   Use this spreadsheet as your basic reference point

   a) What is the total nameplate capacity in MW for each state as of 2009?

   b) Calculate the approximate growth rate (we will be doing this in class) of wind energy build out in each of the states over the time period of 2000 to 2009.

   c) What is the growth rate for the combined 6 state region over this same period?

   d) Given the growth rate that you determined in c) above, how long will it take for this growth to reach 336,000 MW?

   e) Over this region, in reality, the wind capacity factor is, at best, 50% where as the capacity factor for coal is essentially 100%. This means nameplate capacity has to be twice that of coal. How long will it therefore take to have a nameplate capacity of 670,000 MW?

   f) Now find data on the 2010 capacity additions in each of these six states. A good place to find this might be awea.org. Based on the growth rate previously determined, is the 2010 build out consistent with that growth rate in these six states.

   g) Now try to find some real world data on actual build rates for turbine blades. In other words, find information on the facility size, blades per year constructured and number of workers needed for that. The information is out there if you look. Here is one example: http://www.windpowerengineering.com/news/vestas-adds-facilities-jobs-in-colorado/

   h) Finally, given what you found above, comment on the feasibility of obtaining this goal of replacing coal fired electricity with this 6 state wind farm project at 50% capacity factor. What barriers might exist to prevent achieving this goal?

2. Maintaining our Dependence: Harvesting the Oil Sands of Canada
   The Athabasca Tar Sands are potentially a large source of crude oil. Yet there is considerable controversy on what the total yield might be or what the production rate (in terms of millions of barrels of oil per day MBD) might be. Again, do some research (you will find highly variable opinions/information) and attempt to determine coherent anwsers to the following questions:
   • At what price of a barrel of crude oil does the harvesting of oil sands make economic sense? (note: prior to 2008 there had been significant cut back of future harvesting plans due to disfavorable economics)

   • Assuming that future mining does occur, what is the probable production rate (in MBD) and delivery rate projecte to be in the year 2020. That is, what percentage of the world market might this serve during the time period (2020-2025).?