Individual Assignment #3
Application of Poisson Statistics

Due: via email Friday June 8

Important math note:

0! = 1 (by definition)

  1. Army records noted the chance of a Prussian cavalryman being killed by the kick of a horse. The records of ten army corps were examined over 20 years, an a total of 122 deaths by horse kick were noted.

    What is the probability that 3 cavalyrman would be killed in a single year?

  2. It has been observed that the average number of reportable traffic accidents on the Hollywood Freeway between 7 and 8 AM on Wednesday mornings is 1 per hour. What is the chance that there will be 2 accidents on the Freeway some given Wednesday morning during this time interval?

  3. It is 8 PM in Nebraska, near the end of summer, and, our heroine, Sunshine Moonbeam is watching fireflies on the back porch. From the last few nights on the porch at that hour, she knows that the average number of firefly flashes is 6 per minute. She refuses to go to bed until 2 minutes pass in which she observes no flashes - that way she knows that the fireflies have said good night to her. What is the probability of observing 0 flashes in a 2 minute period?

  4. The switchboard in a small Denver law office gets an average of 2.5 incoming phonecalls during the noon hour on Thursdays. Experience shows that the reduced staffing during lunch can handle up to 5 calls in that hour. What is the chance of 6 calls being received during that period, some particular Thursday?

  5. Security cameras in the Bullion Bank of Nevada have established that, during the last half-hour of business on Friday, on average 3 customers enter its lobby to deposit their bulk gold. Gold is heavy, and the bank does not want to keep its gold-bearing customers waiting. How many tellers should it have on duty, at that time, so that there is only a 10% chance or less that any customer will be kept waiting for a teller?

  6. Idaho's Trout'R'Us lake is continually stocked with trout. Anglers average catching 2 trout per hour. Dweebo's girlfriend, Dweizel is a dedicated fisherman. Dweebo know's he will win Dweizel's hand if she catches a trout while fishing together. Since Dweizel can not stand incompetence, she can not tolerate catching 0 fish. Plus, Dweizel is really impatient and can only stand to fish (with Dweebo) for 0.5 hours. What is the probability that Dweebo will not win her hand (or anything else ...)?

  7. Your sailing out on Lake Memphremagog (yes its a real place). Your sailing from South to North in order to become an illegal alien in Canada. Your also a technogeek and are taking data on the wind speed per mile. Here is your data:

    Your non-technogeek sailing companion makes a bet with you that the wind speed between mile 8 and 9 will be 17 mph. What is the probabilty that they will win this bet?

  8. Over the last 500 million years there have been 31 asteroid impacts that have extincted at least 1/3 of all life on the planet. What is the probability that the next extinction event will occur during the next 1 million years?