Assignment 4: Data Driven Arguments
Note: For all those insistent on doing the HW by yourself, if you don't collaborate on this, it will then take more time than
usual to do a complete job.
These tools will be needed:
Question 1
Your parents are bitching that Americans are paying too much money for gasoline over the last 5 years. Your assignment is to use the data to prove them right or wrong.
Below is some data from 1990 to 2017 on a) the median household income and b) the average price of gasoline (per gallon). Assume the average household uses 750 gallons per year
a)
Make a graph of annual gasoline costs divided by median income (Y-axis) as a function of year (X-axis). Attach a screen shot of that graph.
b)
From that graph assess whether or not the american consumer is paying "too much" for gas over this time period and comment on any strong year to year changes you might notice and write a 250 word blog style article about this.
The data
1990 29900 1.01
1991 30100 1.11
1992 30600 1.05
1993 31200 1.06
1994 32200 1.03
1995 34000 1.12
1996 35500 1.17
1997 37000 1.23
1998 38900 1.03
1999 40700 1.08
2000 42000 1.49
2001 42200 1.47
2002 42400 1.34
2003 43300 1.52
2004 44300 1.85
2005 46300 2.28
2006 48200 2.55
2007 50200 2.79
2008 50300 3.25
2009 49800 2.35
2010 49200 2.75
2011 50000 3.52
2012 51000 3.60
2013 53600 3.49
2014 53700 3.36
2015 56500 2.43
2016 59000 2.14
2017 61300 2.42
Question 2: You have been assigned by your company, "Progress 'R Us" to study if there has been a decline in recent years of Adult Chinook salmon at the McNary Dam and if there is a mortality rate of this species between The Dalles Dam and the McNary Dam.
The fish count data is available from this offical site , but I have reproduced the data relevant to this question below.
Using this data answer the questions that are posed below the data table.
The Data:
Dalles McNary
2017 344576 258499
2016 515146 408349
2015 953152 751407
2014 772107 605907
2013 757403 582908
2012 413376 341652
2011 440862 388058
2010 543241 471747
2009 350717 232094
2008 331468 224684
2007 187015 129062
2006 312102 197539
2005 363993 249633
2004 511767 342302
2003 546394 368345
2002 540173 380976
2001 556690 437120
2000 253067 152763
1999 171079 106891
1998 133619 99432
1997 207552 145958
1996 154044 101616
1995 108980 84692
1994 136288 107889
1993 172655 133097
1992 141347 111723
1991 116181 82636
1990 174773 121159
1989 252848 151486
1988 308355 184870
1987 356113 237200
1986 266175 207819
1985 223400 161401
1984 132990 102675
1983 114855 91905
1982 112517 69246
1981 101257 63427
1980 93935 63215
1979 107737 69756
1978 167434 123542
1977 169886 128363
1976 126200 80900
1975 142900 83400
1974 137400 93300
1973 208900 148500
1972 187000 146700
1971 165100 134000
1970 175900 136000
1969 215300 173600
1968 198300 155400
1967 181400 146500
1966 204200 179700
1965 127400 101600
1964 153000 138600
1963 125800 110500
1962 169200 133800
1961 201300 131800
1960 196900 154300
1959 207500 171500
1958 301900 226100
1957 312700 292700
a) Enter the data into the chart tool (you can minimize typing by just entering the data in units of thousands so instead of entering 312700 just enter 312 or 313 if you want to round up). Include your chart in your homework submission and comment on the ensuing pattern of the data that you notice.
b) Compute the means and standard deviations over the entire data period (1957-2017) and use the Z-test to show that the Counts at McNary Dam are significantly lower than at the Dalles Dam.
c) For just the Dalles Dam counts: Compute the average and standard deviation of the counts between the period 2001- 2017 and from 1957-1999. Use the Z-test to determine if there is a significant difference between these two time periods.
d)From the result you just got above, what does this tell you about the relation between dams and decreasing salmon in the Columbia River system. Offer a data informed opinion and not your personal opinion.
e) Compared to the 2001-2017 period (again Dalles Dam) are the low counts observed in 2007 statistically significant? If so, what factors in that year do you think might have caused this (temporary) decline (do some research to support your statements)
Question 3. This exercises makes use of the Renewable Energy Atlas
Your consulting team has been hired by the State of Oregon to deliver a plan for 20,000 MW of new capacity of sustainable energy. Your may choose any kind of renewable energy source and technology that is currently available. You can try to construct a single facility rated at 20,000 MW or a network of different facilities;
however, each node on that network must be at least 2000 MW.
Do not worry about the problem of transmission in your consulting report. Your goal is to use the available yields, as shown in the Renewable Energy Atlas, in combination with reliability factors and other stuff you have learned in this class to produce a facilities plan. Remember, a wind farm will only produce power at 1/3 of the time, solar only when the sun is shining, but wave energy is 24x7.
You must factor in energy storage technologies as part of your infrastructure so that you can deliver the 20,000 MW of power 24 hours a day. You will need to do some research on energy storage technologies such as
- Pumped Hydro
- Batteries
- Flywheels
- Compressed Air
Do not worry about costs either. We assume a generous state subsidy - you are just trying to determine if 20,000 MW is in the realm of feasibility for Oregon.
Elements of your plan need to include the following:
a) A description of the kind of facilities that need to be constructed, the unit capacity of the device that your using
in your array of devices (e.g. 1.5 MW turbine, 100 KW solar array, 500 KW wavefarm), where they are located,
and the amount of power that it can generate on a 24x7 basis and how energy storage facilities become part of that 24x7 delivery. You need to use the renewable energy atlas to find potential energy yields in various regional areas within Oregon and off the coast of Oregon (say to 10 km).
b) An outline of the area of the facilities on Google Map/Earth images (this is easy to do). You may need to do this on a couple of different spatial scales.
c) A 200 word statement to convince the people in the surrounding population areas that this facility should be built and it won't detract from their entitled "view" of the world. If you have learned any skill in this course, this should be one of them.
d) A video file that represents your 5 minute presentation to the Oregon State Legislature strongly arguing why this plan should be invested in as part of the a long term State strategy. Email me if you have difficultiy uploading your video file. Its likely best to upload it to YouTube and provide a link to that.
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