ENVS 202

Assignment 3 for ENVS 202 Summer 2013

Questions:

Make sure you show all work/reasoning.

a) The following table shows US average annual temperatures in three separate time periods 1950-1962, 1970-1982, 2000-2012. Using the Z-test determine if there is a significant difference in mean values between the 2000-2012 data set and the other two data sets.

b)The year 2012 set a record for the highest annual average temperature for the US. Using 2000-2011 data is the value for 2012 significant?

c) From this analysis, give an argument either for or against the assumption that the annual temperature of the US is increasing as a response to global climate change

1950,51.43 1951,51.15 1952,52.33 1953,53.39 1954,53.34 1955,51.72 1956,52.35 1957,52.10 1958,51.97 1959,52.13 1960,51.45 1961,51.88 1962,51.90

1970,51.64 1971,51.71 1972,51.39 1973,52.31 1974,52.30 1975,51.53 1976,51.51 1977,52.58 1978,51.07 1979,50.92 1980,52.41 1981,53.15 1982,51.37

2000,53.27 2001,53.67 2002,53.21 2003,53.30 2004,53.12 2005,53.64 2006,54.32 2007,53.67 2008,52.31 2009,52.39 2010,53.02 2011,53.21 2012,55.34

Do some research and summarize the reasons that some scientists think there is a likely chance that "Runaway Methane Global Warming" will actually happen. Also summarize some of the past geological evidence for past runaway events (e.g. methane burps). Finally, conclude whether or not, based on your research, you think this is a serious concern.
A little reported but quite serious global infrastructure problem is the current rate of iron ore/steel usage. Research and report the growth of China's use of steel (since the year 2000) and the implication that this growth rate has on the exhaustion timescale of the world's steel supply. Find data to compare the growth rates from 2000 to 2008 to those for 2009-2014. Comment on whether or not this is the silver lining associated with global economic meltdown.

The table at the bottom shows the population of Oregon counties from 1950 to 2010. You have just been giving a job as resource manager for the state of Oregon, and you need to examine the population growth for some selected counties as shown in the table below:

Historical Population of Oregon Counties
In units of thousands of people

County	2010	2000	1990	1980	1970	1960	1950
Clackamas	382	339	278	242	166	113	87
Deschutes	172	117	75	62	30	23	22
Jackson	208	182	146	132	95	74	59
Lane	349	323	284	275	213	163	126
Marion	321	285	228	205	151	121	101
Washington	533	448	311	246	158	92	61
Yamhill	96	85	65	55	40	32	33

This is your first day on the job and your boss gives you a bunch of data to distill to answer the following questions. You should make use of the visual regression exponential growth tool as described and linked HERE

Using that tool adjust the growth rate until the line seems to go through most of the point. Remember this is a growth rate per decade.

What do you think the best growth rate would be for the data?
What is the growth rate that you get if you just use the 1950-1980 data?
In 1980 a standard emerged that there should be 1 c0untry sheriff for every 3000 citizens of any county. Based on the 1950-1980 growth rate, what would be the population of Lane county in 2010 and how many county sherrifs should we have?
In the decade of the 1980s, population growth in Lane County was essentially flat - What event or events do you think happened (do some actual research here) to cause this very low lower growth rate.