Let's begin with the basic net energy balance picture:

• The equatorial regions receive more incoming solar radiation than they can re-readiate back to space: Heat Surplus

• Above about 40 degrees latitude, more energy is re-radiated back to space than is received.

• This imbalance sets up both oceanic and atmospheric circulation (Hadley Cells) which effectively re-distributes this heat from the surplus to the deficet regions.

• This is a BIG effect: Without this circulation network the equator would average +14 C higher temperatures and the polar regions would be, on average, 25 C colder.

• The maximum heat transfer occurs at about +/- 40 degrees latitude.

Any systematic change in cloudiness as a function of latitude seriously impacts atmospheric heat transport. Thus we must understand the role of changes in cloud patterns as they effect climate models. Currently we do not treat clouds well:

The simple version:

The more complex versions:

As a result of these complications and how they are modeled there is a wide range in predicted future tempeartures: