How fast will Resource X be depleted?

Well suppose we have the following situation:

• As of 2008, there are 100 units of Resource X still available to us
• In the year 2008, we will use 1 unit of Resource X.
• as measured over the last 6 years, our use of Resource X grows at the rate of 5% per year.

Dear Congressperson, when will resource X run out.

Congressperson says "oh don't worry, Resource X will be around for 100 years"

Really .... don't we use resources like rabbits?

70/n years; n =% growth rate

Its important to recognize that even in the slow growth period, the use of the resource is exponential. If you fail to realize that, you will run out of the resource pretty fast.

The correct equation for calculating the exponential exhaustion timescale of any resource (should be required knowledge for any one elected to congress):

T_e = 1/k * ln (Rk/r_o +1)

where k = growth rate
R = total resource available
r_o = initial consumption rate

Let's start out with the curve for US Oil production. Note that peak production occurs on a timescale of 1/2 of T_e as the production curve is assumed to be symmetric. When resources reach peak production, prices tend to go up which can then serve to lower consumption and extend the exhaustion timescale.

In 1956, M. King Hubbert published an ignored paper based on this methodology as applied to US Oil production.

• Measured Growth rate of oil production in the US over period of 1945-1955 was 3% (.03)

• Starting period of calculation is 1946

• Hubbert estimates the ratio of R/r_o in 1946 to be 120

• From this, what do you find as the year of peak production? Excel template

Other Examples to do in the Excel Template. Following are best estimates for 2010:

1. Coal: R=850 billion tonnes of Reserves: r = 7 billion tons per year; R/r = 120

2. Oil: R = 1250 Billion Barrels; r = 31 BB per year; R/r = 40

3. Gas: R = 6600 TCF; r = 105 TCF per year; R/r = 63 (7%)

4. Iron: R = 225 Billion Tons; r = 1.4* billion tons per year; R/r = 160

5. Phosphates: R= 3 billion tons; r = 15 million tons per year; R/r = 200 (3-4%)

   
   
   

   

   
   
   

6. Manganese 26 production of steel R/r = 30 Market Reaction!
   
   

   US production Drops to Zero

   granulated manganese sulfate fertilizer

Be very aware of this - a little reported fact in US Media Rare Earth Minerals are relevant to most aspects of a scaleable green economy!

So on the surface, application of Hubbert's methodology strongly suggests that the world is going to experience peak production on a variety of mineral and other resources. Various economic corrections will then occur and prices will daramatically rise as a result of real, global, scarcity.

Back to Congress:

The basic problem is that we substitute Disney's First Law for this arithmatic reality of resource depletion.