Various Indicators of Climate Range
Global and Regional

The Big Picture: Chaotic Weather!

The global land surface temperature was the warmest on record for March, 3.3F above the 20th century mean of 40.8F. Temperatures more than 8F above average covered much of the Asian continent. Two months after the greatest January snow cover extent on record on the Eurasian continent, the unusually warm temperatures led to rapid snow melt, and March snow cover extent on the Eurasian continent was the lowest on record.

Some expected US Regional Impacts:

• Continued volatility in the weather in the US (2008 is on record pace for tornadoes) - there is no question that this is occurring.
  

  

• Vulnerable Ecosystems:
  • Alpine meadows in Rockies may disappear
  • Barrier Islands (Carolina coast) may disappear
  • Southeast forests will experience species shfit or or break up into a mosaic of grasslands, woodlands, and forests.

• Snowpack changes in the American West are critical.

  

• Near-term increase in forest growth Forest productivity is likely to increase over the next several decades in some areas as trees respond to higher carbon dioxide levels. Over the longer term, changes in larger-scale processes such as fire, insects, droughts, and disease will possibly decrease forest productivity.

  In addition, climate change is likely to cause long-term shifts in forest species, such as sugar maples moving north out of the US.

However, since the Earth is a non-linear system, some aspects may not be subject to slow gradual change. In the lay language, this is referred to as Tipping Points.

The recently released 2008 data on Arctic Ice Loss is cause for real concern as it marks a significant departure from the linear trend defined by the bulk of the data and is consistent with the record minimum set in 2007.

The new trajectory suggests Arctic Ice will dissappear in September 2013 - expect this to be a big boon for the Cruise Ship Industry!

Millions of square km is Y-axis
Data from national snow and ice center

Worse case scenario The rapid loss of Arctic sea ice will speed up the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet, and a rise in sea levels by even as much as 5 metres by the turn of this century is possible.

Moreover, Albedo changes (overall reflectivity of the earth) is a fundamental component of the earth's energy balance with respect to incoming solar radiation. Changes in ice composition produce large changes in Albedo:

And the permafrost layers are slowly rising in temperature:

While permafrost active layers are quite sensitive to temperature so too are grapes.

These viticulture zones are shifting poleward (more so in the NH than the SH). Total shift by the year 2100 could be as much as 500 km.

Okay, so your not worried about wine, but maybe you might worry about the 2050 prediction for Malaria risk as we continue along the BAU road: