Case Study: Northern Spotted Owl Protection Policy

This case is an excellent example of a policy made in a virtual data vacuum. Furthermore, this example shows how qualitative reasoning lead to a large scale policy that may have been quantitatively flawed as the policy was basically done in a data vacuum.

With respect to the spotted owl, science tells us that Old Growth forests in the Pacific Northwest are the prime habitat for spotted owls:

(Thomas et al 1990)

Habitat studies done in the 1980s showed a habitat mosaic of Old Growth stands ranging in size from 50 to 500 acres. The qualitative policy statement was that each pair of spotted owls needs a large territory in an Old Growth environment for its own hunting and nesting purposes. When confronted with that qualitative statement, scientist needs to ask only one question: How large is large?

The secondary question is what kind of data should be acquired to reliably determine the quantitative value of large. The original policy value for large was set to 300 acres in 1977. That value of 300 was revised to 1000 acres in 1982

(see Forsman, Horn and Neito 1982)

Okay, where does then number of 1000 come from? It appears to come from a single masters thesis of Forsman 1980 entitled Habitat utilization by spotted owls in the west-central Cascades of Oregon. What?

One source determines a global policy. This is a little like saying a single thermometer on the planet will determine global warming policy. How do we know that 1000 is the right number and not, say, 100? The difference between 1000 and 100 is catastrophic in terms of the ultimate effect it will have on the Timber industry.

In the end, this policy was catastrophic as the economy of Lane Country completely collapsed (Lane County had the lowest population growth rate in the entire decade of the 1980s compared to any other county in the western states). As a result of that, Measure 5, a property tax limitation, passed in 1990 which subsequently essentially killed higher ed support in the state of Oregon. This is an example of unintended consequences.

Another unintended consequence is that the logging town of Valsetz Oregon, in the Oregon Coast Range, was now longer necessary so the residents ceremoniously burned it down.

This is bad policy as the number of data sources used to determine the policy is quite limited. Instead a nice round number was used, namely 1000 acres, with absolutely now scientific vetting that this was the right number. This policy still remains in place ...